Australia Is Likely the Safest Place During a Global Catastrophic Risk

It can sometimes feel as though humanity faces an endless succession of catastrophic dangers.

Nuclear armageddon. Climate change. Pandemics. AI. Supervolcanoes. The threats are numerous.

Yet, if everything really does go wrong and an unprecedented worldwide disaster occurs, where could you turn?

Where would be the safest place to seek shelter, remain out of harm's way through the crisis, and perhaps live to see better times?

A first-of-its-kind study, published in Global Challenges, has identified what may be the world's safest overall location if an uncontained catastrophe strikes.

"Australia is likely the most resilient place on Earth when it comes to global catastrophic risks," the researchers explain in a paper led by first author Florian Ulrich Jehn, an environmental scientist at Germany's University of Hagen.

A Global Catastrophic Biological Risk (GCBR), whether natural or human-made, could result in mass casualties and severe societal disruption on a continental to global scale (Grandfailure/iStock)

Before booking a flight and packing, however, there is an important caveat.

Australia itself is not entirely protected from global catastrophic risks (GCRs), the researchers caution. Rather, it is the country with the lowest overall exposure to the broad range of possible threats confronting humanity.

Australia and global catastrophic risks

For their study, Jehn and his colleagues examined scientific literature on GCRs, evaluating hundreds of papers and reports concerning the effects of disasters including asteroids hitting Earth, volcanic eruptions, major cyberattacks, disease hazards, and more.

The team says GCRs generally fall into three main categories.

Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios (ASRS) describe events that rapidly obstruct sunlight, including volcanic eruptions, nuclear winters, and clouds produced by an asteroid impact.

Disasters that interrupt societal systems are known as Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss (GCIL). They can disrupt electricity supplies, transport, and food production, and may be caused by geomagnetic storms, cyberattacks, pandemics, and High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulses (HEMP).

The third category, Global Catastrophic Biological Risk (GCBR), applies to extensive biological dangers, natural or human-made, that cause mass casualties and severe disruption to society across continental or global scales.

It would not be the first occasion on which a catastrophe blocked sunlight across the world. (Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library/Getty Images)

Beyond categorising risks, the researchers reviewed work on resilience. Here, that means a society's ability to sustain essential functions and human welfare amid major disruption caused by such disasters, shaped by particular geographical, institutional, and infrastructure-related conditions.

Countries are generally more resilient to GCRs, the researchers say, where they are democratic and wealthier, have less inequality, possess a substantial industrial base subject to strong government influence, are remotely situated such as on large islands, show greater decentralisation and diversity, and either depend less on trade or trade with geographically nearby partners.

When these factors are considered alongside the three principal categories of GCRs, Australia stands out in published research because of its geographical isolation, food production, fossil-fuel resources, industrial capacity, and several other considerations.

"No single place on Earth is resilient against all global catastrophic risks, but Australia is the country most frequently identified as resilient," the researchers explain.

"Even this country, however, is vulnerable to specific hazards and dependent on continued international trade for fuel, medicine, and fertilizer."

The analysis identified Australia as the only nation directly described as resilient to all three forms of GCRs. But a central finding of the review is that advantages in one setting can frequently become vulnerabilities when facing another threat.

In Australia's case, being a large island provides significant protection against some dangers, while also increasing its reliance on international trading systems for imports of certain vital goods.

Despite the difficulties Australia faces, scientists overall tend to regard it as the planet's most resilient country in relation to GCRs.

"Although Australia has obvious problems with the consequences of climate change, it fares well in our assessment," says Jehn.

"It's an island, so it can more easily shut itself off and isolate itself. Australia produces an incredible amount of food, has a large domestic industry and mining sector. It's also wealthy and a fairly stable democracy – all things that make a country more resilient."

Other resilient countries and remaining vulnerabilities

Following Australia, the researchers identify New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and Argentina as other resilient nations. However, they note that many of these countries remain susceptible to particular hazards, notwithstanding favourable factors elsewhere.

"All of the most mentioned countries except Switzerland have long coastlines which could be impacted by tsunamis from a near-Earth object," the study authors write.

"All except Switzerland could be impacted by one of the several volcanoes in South-East Asia and South America erupting, as Tambora did in 1815. All are reliant on trade. There is no place on Earth which is a complete refuge from GCR."

Related: The World Is Not Ready For The Next Super-Eruption, Scientists Warn

Looking ahead, the researchers suggest that identifying structurally resilient states such as Australia and New Zealand may allow them to serve as anchor points for efforts to strengthen global resilience.

They could, for instance, accommodate food stores or seed banks. Their industrial capacity might also enable them to continue operating during a global catastrophe, making them suitable bases from which to coordinate an international response to whatever disaster has occurred.

The researchers say preparedness is the crucial priority, as such events can sometimes be much closer than expected.

"Prevention is always preferable to resilience," the authors explain.

"Some GCRs, like volcanic eruptions, cannot currently be prevented. When they occur, the difference between societies that have invested in the factors identified here and those that have not will be measured in lives."

The findings appear in Global Challenges.

This article was fact-checked and edited by Fiona MacDonald. Although we take pride in our process, we are only human. If you notice an error, please let us know.