Food Systems Countdown Initiative Report Finds 2030 Goals Far Off Track

At a local, everyday level, it is easy to lose sight of the precarious condition of the planet. Yet scientific reality checks are becoming both more regular and more alarming.

An international research team working through the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) has now examined humanity’s progress towards internationally agreed food system goals for 2030.

The findings are troubling: the world is not on course to meet them. Indeed, it is falling well short.

In a report published in Nature Food, the FSCI researchers evaluated 44 indicators. Among the 30 that have established global targets, just one appears realistically achievable by 2030: mobile phone subscriptions, which serve as a proxy measure for social connectedness and food system resilience.

Their method brings together progress towards targets set by governments and international organisations with comparisons between countries. This provides a more complete view of both what can be achieved and what remains out of reach.

"What makes this Countdown paper different is that it doesn't just tell countries whether they're moving in the right direction – it tells them how far they still have to go, and against a benchmark that's actually within reach," says nutrition scientist Bianca Carducci, from the Columbia Climate School in the US.

"That distinction between tracking trends and measuring performance is what turns a monitoring exercise into a tool for accountability."

Food Systems Countdown Initiative: measuring global progress

The indicators examined span the major dimensions of food systems, from food production and transport to consumption. Factors ranging from the depletion of natural resources to dietary patterns can determine whether a food system is robust or vulnerable.

Targets and benchmarks matter because, without a way to assess progress, there is a risk of a harmful absence of accountability and collective momentum.

Governance is one of the indicator themes, and it makes this point particularly clearly.

"Food systems transformation is a shared responsibility," says Lawrence Haddad, Executive Director at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition in Switzerland.

"The governance indicators, including government effectiveness, accountability, and civil society participation, are not just one category among five. They are the enablers. Improving them unlocks progress across the entire system."

For 22 indicators, fewer than one-third of the 197 countries covered by the report are projected to achieve the relevant global target or benchmark by 2030.

Food system goals remain far from reach

Among the poorest-performing measures is ‘greenhouse gas emissions from food systems’, for which the global average sits more than 75 per cent away from the target.

Several indicators are moving in the wrong direction, including civil society participation, government accountability, pesticide use and ultra-processed food sales.

Gaps are typically narrower when regional or income-group benchmarks are used, comparing countries with nations at similar stages of economic development. However, sizeable shortfalls persist across many indicators.

"Bold global targets are vital for inspiring ambition. But they can become a source of inertia if they seem permanently out of reach," says food policy scientist Jessica Fanzo, from Johns Hopkins University.

"Therefore, regional and income-group benchmarks keep progress within sight and help identify the exemplar countries that can show others how it is achievable."

There is also some more encouraging evidence in the report. Of the 33 indicators with applicable projection data, 7 have at least one-third of countries on track for 2030, while half of all indicators are heading in the right direction.

The outlook "improves considerably" when the assessment period is extended to 2050, although certain targets would still be exceptionally difficult to attain.

Faster food systems transformation is needed

Rapid, substantial changes are required to improve food affordability, food security, resilience and other areas in which countries remain distant from their targets. Environmental and food-system shocks pose especially serious dangers to vulnerable populations.

"Accountability for food systems transformation requires accelerated progress - without it, efforts risk becoming performative rather than transformative," says sustainability scientist Mario Herrero, from the Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment.

"We can no longer afford to continue at the present pace."

The research was published in Nature Food.

This article was fact-checked and edited by Rebecca Dyer. Although we take pride in our process, we are only human. If you notice an error, please let us know.