Pinot Noir Suffers While Chardonnay Is More Drought-Proof, Study Suggests

As western Europe approaches the close of its hottest summer on record, growers in some of the world’s best-known wine regions are bringing forward their harvests - where their grapes have not already been scorched by wildfires and drought.

The evidence indicates that wine regions in Europe and worldwide will continue to face hotter and drier conditions.

Climate pressure on wine regions

A new study led by viticulture specialists at institutions in France, Germany and Argentina has examined how two of the most widely grown wine grape cultivars - Pinot noir and Chardonnay - could cope as drought becomes increasingly common with the advance of climate change.

Burned vineyards following a wildfire in Ponteves, south-eastern France, in July 2026. (Thibaud Moritz/AFP/Getty Images)

Wine grapes (Vitis vinifera) are generally a crop that withstands dry conditions reasonably well. For red wines, a somewhat drier year can actually enhance a vintage - and the value of every bottle - despite producing a smaller yield.

However, more severe conditions can quickly upset this delicate balance. During droughts, vines typically produce far fewer berries, which are smaller and can sometimes fail to ripen correctly.

Researchers have proposed artificial selection, or even gene editing, as ways to develop new wine varieties better adapted to future climate conditions.

Yet growers in traditional wine regions, including France, Italy and Germany, remain committed to their existing vines.

“While many possibilities have been explored to adapt wine production to climate change, changing cultivars is indeed a risky choice for premium wine regions whose wine characteristics and reputations strongly rely on a single or a few varieties,” writes viticulturist Sébastien Nicolas, of Institut Universitaire de la Vigne et du Vin – Jules Guyot, alongside colleagues in their recent paper.

“These levers are considered as options of last resort in cool or temperate climate winegrowing regions bound by strict regulations such as the Loire Valley, Bourgogne, or Champagne in France…

“This is because the combination of wine variety and place of origin strongly marks the wine sensory characteristics.”

Understanding how warming scenarios could affect these established vines is therefore important. Given the current heat and dryness of the European summer, such impacts could emerge as early as next year.

Pinot noir and Chardonnay under a warmer climate

To determine how the two popular wine varieties might perform in a climate 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the team gathered Pinot noir and Chardonnay grape samples from 80 vineyards across 13 wine-producing regions in France, Italy, Germany, Portugal and Argentina. The samples covered three vintages: 2019, 2020 and 2021.

The researchers used carbon isotope analysis of the grapes’ juice to assess water availability in the vineyards - an approach shown to be a dependable measure of vine water status.

“Both varieties appeared to be able to withstand a wide range of water deficits, some of which may be associated with climatic conditions similar to a +2 °C warming scenario in Burgundy,” Nicolas and his team write.

Over the three years, Chardonnay vines in every region encountered the broadest range of water deficits.

Notably, vines in the driest regions did not experience the greatest water deficits, since vineyards there had adopted irrigation.

Pinot noir vines appear to have a ‘tipping point’ for flavour that will become more common as climate change advances. (Sebastien Bozon/AFP/Getty Images)

Chardonnay and Pinot noir show different limits

The team found substantial shifts in the grapes’ metabolic fingerprints according to vineyard water status. These changes affected terroir, the distinctive character a wine derives from its particular growing conditions.

“The 'Chardonnay' cultivar did not seem to reach a tipping point, and the response dynamics of the metabolites was linear, suggesting a potentially higher adaptability of this variety to its changing environment,” the authors report.

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The news is less promising for red wine fans: Pinot noir did seem to reach a tipping point. Its metabolites remained stable until vines underwent severe water-deficit stress; beyond that threshold, the molecules crucial to the wine’s character began to break down.

The findings indicate that high-quality Chardonnay may remain available even as droughts grow more frequent. The finest Pinot noirs, by contrast, may already be a thing of the past.

The study was published in Food Chemistry: X.

This article was fact-checked and edited by Fiona MacDonald. While we take pride in our process, we are only human. If you spot an error, please let us know.